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"the crisis will begin in 2010 and will be really brutal, terrible teacher

Santiago Niño Becerra interview published in La Vanguardia on October 3, 2008:

Santiago Niño Becerra, born in Barcelona 57 years ago is a man who speak clearly. Professor of Economic Structure, is a professor in the Faculty of Economics IQS Universitat Ramon Llull. Believes that the world economic situation is going to go "tends to get worse" over the next three years and that all measures are being implemented will not be used because they respond to an old manual that has become obsolete.

- Are we in crisis?
"No, he goes. I'd say we're in "pre-crisis." The crisis began in mid-2010. But it's also what comes next and what will not look anything like what we experienced in 1993 or 2000. This is another film, is a systemic crisis. To resemble anything, it would seem to crack the 29 ".

- Why is a systemic crisis?
"Because the way it is running the system has to change. In 1993 there was a problem, was injected in the form of credit money and ran. In 2000, the same thing. Not now. We use an old manual no longer works. Have exhausted the tools that were launched as the hyper, the hipercrédito or hiperdeuda and pass to another movie ...

- When did this "pre-crisis"?
-In September 2007 when it said the subprime problem.

- And how long will it last?
"It lasts until June or July 2010. The trend within this period will be worse. This does not mean that one day the stock goes up or another down. In 2010 starts the real crisis. Fall "to lead" until mid-2012. There will collapse economically, and will be worldwide.

- What will happen after 2010?
-During the period 2010-2012 the level of drop is brutal, terrible. There will be economies will suffer greatly, for example English, German, U.S. or China. There will be a period of stagnation until 2015 and, from there, begin a slow recovery period until 2018-2020. We're talking about a period of 10 years, similar to the "Great Depression" American of the 1930.

- Capitalism has come to an end?
-The collapse of the capitalist system has not yet been produced. The systems have a lifespan of 250 years. Capitalism began between 1815 and 1820 and will end more or less in 2070. What we now live is a crisis of adjustment, as in 1929. The characteristics of capitalism will not change but the adjustment will be very important.

- What are the possibilities we have to weather the storm?
"Nothing. This has to happen. Is inevitable.

- But citizens have no option to try out less affected?
"I always recommend that if you have debt, not deeper in debt. Who does not have, do not get into debt and if a person owes money and money saved, which I dedicate to debt reduction. Another thing is that before you buy anything, people will ask if you really need. Calculating well what are the expectations of their income and adjusted expenditures. What is not necessary, is not important.

- Are there many companies can bear this situation?
"No, there will be closures in cascade. The evolution will become worse and, after 2010, will accelerate.

- Blame it on the banks and real estate?
"The fault is not a person or group of people. The measures taken have led to disaster. But if these measures had been taken, had not grown as it has grown. And we've all been very pleased to grow well.

- Will banks go bankrupt?
"Yes, but if a bank failed then nothing happens. The problem is that, in a scenario like this, that a bank is a torpedo drop to trust. The system we have assembled is not cables attached to titanium, is attached to something as intangible as the confidence that, when broken, can no longer be repaired.

- Is it a good decision that governments use public money to save business?
"It will not do. Has to be done because the model says that is what should be done. This is to plug a hole, but will open another. We are talking about numbers so brutal that it is impossible to have enough money to cover all holes.

- How will we know we're out of the crisis?
"The recovery will be perceived in the environment. The first sign of recovery will not go into 2012 because the worse. The second sign is Some people start to do things.

- The result of this crisis is the emergence of a new economic power?
"I figure I think the state will go to less and that large corporations have more power. I think General Electric is the first corporation of the future, is a case study. In the future there will be more efficiency, order, development, ...

- Major corporations such as those in the film "Rollerball", which posed a future in which large corporations controlling the world?
"Yes, that's it.

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Niño Becerra forecast

2010 and 2011 will be worse than 2009 in the economic field as Professor of Economic Structure Santiago Niño Becerra Ramon Llull University. [ interview RNE 5 ]

Toni Clapp interview on radio on Vimeo Rac1 collection published in malvasíaBlog

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Petition to the Mayor ...

originate in the blog In Bolmir :

There

public funds for municipal works: those from the Local Investment Fund, the budget for several years works for many of the municipalities. Considering this source of municipal funding and as the director of the Government of Cantabria, Mr. Mazon has not replied to the letter originally sent to the Chairman Revilla, a neighborhood group Bolmir we have to follow our Petition to the Mayor de Campo de Enmedio to fix the rural road Reinosa Bolmir to public funds that can receive from the Government of Spain.

Here is the letter For the record:
Mr
Caramel Mayor Hijosa
Enmedio Campoo
C / García del Olmo, 16 39200
Matamorosa (Cantabria)


SUBJECT: RECOVERY AND REHABILITATION OF RURAL ROAD Bolm A REINOSA


Exercise of Right to Petition Act 4 / 2001 of 12 November

undersigned citizens, residents of Bolmir, we use the right of petition under Art. 29.1 and 53.2 of the English Constitution and regulated by the Organic Law 4 / 2001 of 12 November. Require the confidentiality of our data as recorded by the organic law governing.

The purpose of the petition is Hall REQUEST to undertake actions that designed to Recovery and Rehabilitation of rural road Bolmir [Campoo Enmedio] to Reinosa, invoking Relief Fund to local councils of the Government of Spain, and to this end this project to the Government Delegation in Cantabria, whether the project was not budgeted for 2009. While

request information about the timing of the works could be undertaken. CONSIDER

are necessary the following works:

1 - Consolidation of the firm and asphalting of the road with a width of at least 3 meters.

2 - Works in the basement under the A-67 to eliminate puddles.

3 - Works on the subway under the new road that links Ind. La Vega and A-67 for sanitation, lighting, elimination of leaks and dampness, building a slight slope to eliminate puddles and adequacy of disclosures.

4 - Construction of a new footbridge over the river Izarilla.

5 - After crossing the river Izarilla, determine if the road must pass through which was adjacent to the wall of Sidenor, and if agreements with Sepes and / or buyers of the plots to dispose of land. Otherwise buy land in the parcel adjacent to the northern facade of New Castilla doors - has not been built on it - where now provisionally elapses.

6 - Paving of the road in the industrial park land.

and Expose the reasons for raising this request are as follows:

• The shortest path from Reinosa Bolmir to a straight line, the road which for decades was spent by the Vega and Reinosa Bolmir on land adjacent to the Naval [factory] and that in part has been lost.

• All Enmedio Campoo villages surrounding Reinosa-Matamorosa, Nestares, Requejo-have a connection with the head of county roads and sidewalks. Not for Bolmir.

• For at least a hundred years the road has been frequented -Amen used for farm work and cattle, "for workers, today's Naval SIDENOR-and other companies to go to work, children and young people to go to the Colegio San José and the Institute for Media Education, and neighbors who will do the shopping, the doctor, take the train or ride. Retortillo neighbors, and Horna Villafria also used this way.

• When the 90 state SEPES society takes care of the land of the plain of Reinosa to develop what is now the Industrial La Vega does not take into account that in lands adjacent to the factory, between the rivers Izarilla e Hijar - there is this way. And it seems that no authority said local developer society then this end and make appropriate claims.

• Logically plots have been sold or are currently for sale. In 2006 the residents of Bolmir comprobábamos as a new industry arose Doors New Castile, Izarilla land near the river, and what was the road.

• Today to walk to Reinosa from Bolmir by the meadow, we cross a subway under the motorway A-67 in winter becomes a high curb and a pond, then crossed a stony gravel and mud to subway built under the new access road from the A-67 to Industrial Park La Vega, which has been badly topped-free waterproofing, and insulation, with moisture and puddles, and without enlightenment. No pedestrians or cars can access the new road from the road.

• After crossing the old wooden bridge over the river Izarilla-you can come down at any moment, the road disappears, we find about the new industry bordered by public land, following the course Izarilla channel then surrounded the industry for its north facade [interim solution until the plot is built next to doors New Castile] to achieve one of the streets of the polygon.

• The average age of population is high, typical of the demographics of rural areas. The seasons pass the years and legislatures, and the road is not fixed.

• Since the City Council of Enmedio Campoo could receive up to 690,000 euros Relief Fund understand that you can apply a portion of this amount to the making of a work being a priority. Of these needs for road infrastructure are informed chairman director Mr Revilla and Mr. Mazon.

• The Minister of Public Administration, and deputy of Cantabria, Elena Salgado, has appealed for the cooperation of the public to supervise - themselves - who are running investments in their municipalities. We ask for the time being performing the work.


In Bolmir, to January 14, 2009 Signed





SR. MAYOR OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF MIDDLE
CAMPOO

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A state with too much perimeter

article Alfons Quinta The Confidential :

The repeated television interviews Zapatero Gabilondo are part of the paradigm of the ceremony for the confusion. The interviewee knows that "playing house", so let it go a little further. The traditional emptiness of the "spirit" - a kind of escape from reality on the basis of what Italians call 'buonismo' - is replaced by another kind of emptiness, ignoring even the ignorant that others may not be of sad condition.

In the last interview of the couple came up with the alternative of interventionism and economic liberalism. It was just that (is said with irony) and also considered generic. There was less realistic than 'The Persiles and Sigismunda work. "

However, there was not the slightest hint of a major democratic changes of the twentieth century, affecting the above dichotomy. Is to overcome this antagonism by means of institutional self-government. This is an administrative and political model that starts from the English Revolution, which was promoted by American and who today is made by the European Union, as well as all the great democracies.

involves the implementation of regulatory and supervisory institutions independent of the executive, but who have, within the scope of its powers, powers that previously exclusive to, as well as other regulatory and even order judicial. Here we are far away. We have not a self-governing body of judges worthy of its name, while the public media is bound and tied it for political power shift. There are as usual, covered with varnish.

in Britain are called quangos (Quasi Autonomous Non-Governametal Organisations ') or' Non-Departmental Public Bodies. " In the United States, "Independent Regulatory Agencies." In France, 'Autorités Indépendante Administrative Affairs. " That have been taken by France, the homeland of 'Droit Administratif' - historically antagonistic to institutional self-government and in particular the 'rule of law' British - shows the extent and universality of change.

Here, in the public debate, this topic does not exist, even though it should be a priority, because it is urgent to reduce the scope of political and administrative power, ie the State to reduce its huge perimeter. The so-called rule of autonomy has not reduced at all, but rather has increased, while that generated confusion. We have a great Leviathan but many, when in fact take the currency - and within globalization - had had to imply the opposite.

Anyone with a minimum interest the public can perceive things that the politicization of everything politicized in the context of a political power that preserves an archaic verticality, with expansion up to the ridicule of the old dichotomy between left and right not in the public interest. You can also view the public interest to leave the market or the economy, or anyone, is not the solution. In all models tested so far untouched corruption continued and sometimes increased.

approach the subject from below and from the concrete, remember the chilling spectacle offered by the ineffable live Magdalena Alvarez, on the occasion of the air disaster Barajas. It was found that a complex and important issue - both human and economic - such as air traffic was in the hands of someone who knew nothing about aviation, administrative, or anything. It was the old political power in a pure state, but counterparts of knowledge, responsibility, sound regulation and effective supervision. There is no other solution than building in aeronautical authority of a strong, independent and effective government. The same is true in many more orders from health informatics.

Yet nineteenth-century conception of raw power political - that preserves the unitarity of the absolute monarchies - for a English company, which is complex and modern, with the exception precisely their political-administrative apparatus. Indeed, the creation of independent authorities in Spain has been reduced to a minimum, except when played by the European imperative. Can anyone imagine what would have happened in the current crisis if they had survived the old structures of the Bank of Spain? Here

political and administrative dysfunction seems to be a non issue. When you teach your ears (yesterday, today, tomorrow) is the top with anything. Unitarianism Jacobin endures, with the ominous corporatism counterweight different, and even at regional level has increased. Territorial gender confusion increases the weight of a slab of freedom, at a time when, with a multiplicity of territorial powers or not, the state's inability to take on new roles is always present. But we're going to do: some do not want to limit their enjoyment of power and others hope to enjoy in the future. The inherent psychological pleasure enjoyment marginalizes the urgent need for reform of a political-administrative water was before the crisis and continue to do so afterwards.

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Benegas Javier article in The Confidential

democratic deficit and financial ruin are unfolded again and again as if it were different issues. And they are different: they are the same issue. But it should be separated so that the first is drowning in endless partisan debates. And the second is diluted in discussions featuring actors academicians ultimately live and work by and for the system.

Once around the trap, which we find is an overwhelming symmetry between lack of democracy and social misery, so proverbial that remains only a minimum of lucidity and courage to certify that they are the image and glory of a same process of degradation. Every time a Western government decides, not entrusted to God or the devil, dip into the taxpayers' money for injection into the "system" democracies are reeling with the same violence with which, immediately afterwards, new waves are generated ending poverty invariably plundered impact on societies. That is, the democratic deficit pace with the debt of the States and vice versa, and the end result can only be one: the utter ruin of citizens and the failure of the states.

Capitalism is not an ideology, if not have heard those who still run by the grace of certain implants, nor is the origin of evil . The origin is in the democratic deficit. And from there, the evil spreads at high speed everywhere. The Free Market becomes mercantilism, and this in turn degenerates into greed and corruption. The lie becomes alibi the system, first, the news, then finally the norm. And the rulers of our democracy lose all legitimacy. The people are sovereign, yes, but democracy does not in any way legitimize the massive looting. The State exists to protect us, not to seize our assets as much as the bill-which, incidentally, have not signed, we will turn the 12, 24 and 36 months. Much they differ in time, it is a coup in which instead of removing the tanks in the streets, citizens were indebted to unbearable limits.

When rulers lose all legitimacy to overcome the limits of its mandate and states fail to fulfill its mission to become aggressive and totalitarian systems, the citizen has the right and duty of resistance. Democracy is not a system enshrined the absolute power via the ballot every four years to a closed and blocked lists. And neither can be understood as a system of government expansion, through which civil society signed blank checks to the political classes, are the sign they are. Faced with formidable as the present crisis, common sense, survival instinct and the principle of prudence has its natural place in civil society, since it reacts directly based on reality environment and act accordingly with an ability to adjust infinitely greater and faster than any superstructure, always subject to interference and multi-stakeholder brokering.

therefore, that democracy is a fact and not mere alibi, so fundamental to require the separation of powers and civil society have a strong and reactive. Representativeness is not the monopoly of political parties, let alone when they lack internal democracy, but a well that has to guard the civil society at all times exercise monitoring and constant pressure on any decision that goes beyond mere management. Even clearer: to decide the fate of 250,000 million euros of taxpayers' money, whether in the form of guarantees or direct contributions, it is not an exclusive decision of the political caste, nor is democracy that can justify such a seizure of assets. And if our leaders insist on making sure that this is the only way, citing the extreme gravity of the situation before engaging in this debate, the first is to require them all to resign, the second third of accountability and regenerate our democracy. Everything else is moving forward with a firm step towards the abyss.

* Javier Benegas is Vice President and Secretary General of the Platform the Middle Classes: www.clasesmedias.org

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Trim price targets on shares of English banks as the British bank HSBC [ information finanzas.com ]:

English banks back to the stark reality of the market. HSBC has lowered suddenly recommendations Santander, BBVA , Sabadell and Popular. Regarding the former, the English broker has cut its board from overweight to neutral, while with the Bilbao-based organization has been tougher and has been reduced to underweight from overweight. The new target price for Santander is of 7.3 euros from the previous 13.4, while BBVA it has been trimmed to 7.4 from the 16 above. HSBC has also lowered its price target Sabadell 6.5 to 4.4 euros, and the People, from 6.8 to 5.8 euros per share.

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Muela

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the Spanish banking institutions without government and without

article in The Confidential:

Spain begins 2009 with a severe economic recession and political and institutional crisis, which exacerbated the distrust and sense of orphans in our society. Few believe in the ability of the ruling class to captain the overcoming of the problems, but few venture initiatives without being thaumaturgic, could restore the trust that must underpin any attempt to recover the city mood. It is possible that this is due largely to the idea as sacred by the political class that once held a general election, everything is unshakable until the next elections.

Refused and one of the principles of democracy, which is the dynamic functioning of the institutions, which include the Parliament, but not only that to ensure the public interest, replacing, where appropriate, to governments, if we consider that do not fulfill their duties.

The "English democracy" is a unique political system, which is based distrust in the society with the creation of a model partitocrático impervious to change and prone to patronage, but hard to admit, the prevailing order is an updated version of the old cacique policies that have shaped, seamless, almost all the constitutional experience of Spain.

The web of institutional setup, accompanied by springs available to public authorities in a modern state, however weak it may be, gives managers security policy, that is enhanced by the patience and submission of the company little or nothing demanding their rights.

is true that the reality described has been consolidated because there has been more than enough resources, both internal and external, to make this possible: from the entry into the European Union 1985, various English governments have provided public funds in amounts unknown in Spain, part of which is dedicated to the modernization of the country's infrastructure and some, not inconsiderable, is dedicated to nurturing the emerging powers of the regions to build a constellation of quasi-state organizations that have no similarities with countries close to us. Spain has lived his version of the roaring twenties, with a dangerous neglect of the traditional virtues of thrift, prudence and fairness in public administration, also in private, now miss.

The huge debt that will fall-and-falling on the shoulders of the English for the Crown government decisions in many previous neglect, but responsible not have foreseen the extent of the storm, is the great notice that the bread and circus policy dominating the English scene comes to an end, not without resistance from the main protagonists. These days we are witnessing the spectacle of the regional funding allocation in which all receive the head of government assurances that what he is doing well. That reminds me of that old aunt, in her last illness, he received his nephews and every one of them said 'everything is for you ", and all hell broke his death of God is Christ in the family.

Nobody wants that to Spain and would be regrettable that the reactions occur when you appear disorderly conduct, for the worsening social crisis. Our society, historical experience and education probably would not take even 20% of the disorders that have lived in other countries, cases of France and Greece, without falling into the authoritarian temptation. The cross of our little democratic experience is the ease with which any proposal can turn to the democratic order unfairly blamed for the ills that afflict us.

In a normal democratic system output to a situation as described would be a change of government or early elections, but this second option, with the current model, would be an unnecessary extension of the disease that afflicts us.

therefore desirable that the institutions of the regime started its opening, helping to set up a government whose primary tasks would be managing the economic crisis and proposed constitutional and electoral reforms needed to overcome the political sclerosis, calling for elections within a maximum period of two years. This way would begin the road back to the English sovereignty, for true democratic regeneration.

* Manuel Muela is an economist.

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Antonio García-Trevijano starts the year with this article in the Journal of the Constitutional Republic :

L you are used to move bodies, to move from one place to another, consuming energy, anxious to spend. Souls tend to stillness, stability, permanence in the state of the first awareness of themselves, saving new thoughts, to be preserved. The bodies are dying, in stages, the limits of its power. Souls manifest themselves in society, be intimate, such as complacency, conformity to their powers to not want other modes of higher life. The resistance of the material to be processed is less than the inflexibility of the mind to be tilted his best to be in new situations. It is the drama of collective freedom, politics. Few feel the spiritual needs of its realization, because few people know that freedom is the freedom of others.

E n all times and places have emerged innovative spirits. Minorities pulled his fellow Hawaiians in the caves and took them to the dominance of matter in science and technology, other civilized ways of living community life, and seen as being able to overcome rudimentary forms of life. However, material progress, progress in the conquest of nature, proved far easier than moral progress, progress in the conquest of political freedom. It would be unusual to find some spirit today selected to defend the social utility of slavery. As rare as finding thinkers of liberty in Europe to condemn morally and politically, the voluntary easement on which the State Parties. Servility of the collective soul that outraged La Boétie, under the absolute monarchy, and which is still angering the few defenders of political freedom of the governed, against the majority consensus to accept, as normal, the state granted privilege parties to such power exclusively.

N or as much about ending the corruption involved in all forms of synarchy-the oligarchy of State Parties is the most closed, "nor to seek ways of policies that encourage collective effort to overcome the economic crisis the bankruptcy of the national consciousness as to access the dignity of common life, through participation in the conquest of political freedom. That desire for personal and collective dignity, that spirit of moral progress, defines the ultimate essence of being human. A spirit of conquest of freedom, compared to the dominant spirit of commerce and profit added to the monarchy parties, enlighten and guide will of all who stand here every day, without waiting for material rewards or need external stimuli, the brave, noble and bright banner of the Constitutional Republic. In that one common flag is a slogan written in letters of gold: Forward. Will comply.

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